This page holds the detailed definitions and scoring rules behind the forecasts in The Daily Perspective. The first article to use them is the analysis of the end of MINURSO. For how the section works in general, see About The Daily Perspective.
What a forecast is here
A forecast is a probability we record before publication, with a test for deciding whether it came true and a date by which it is judged. The percentages are our own judgments, not measurements. Where we have no base rate, we say so. We never rewrite a forecast after publication. A later clarification is added as a dated amendment, and the original wording stays on record.
Scoring
When a forecast resolves we record the outcome as 1 (it happened) or 0 (it did not). The Brier score is the square of the gap between the probability and the outcome. A 90% forecast that comes true scores 0.01. The same forecast scores 0.81 if it fails. Lower is better, and a forecast of 50% on everything scores 0.25. We review the scores each month and report them with the article that made the forecast.
MINURSO analysis: scenarios (horizon February 28, 2027)
The three scenarios were first published with weights (about 55%, 30% and 15%) but without definitions or a horizon. The definitions below were added on November 4, 2026 after publication. They are a dated methodological amendment, not the original specification. Exactly one scenario applies:
- Scenario 3, the Council track reopens (about 15%): the Security Council adopts any new text on Western Sahara by February 28, 2027. A resolution of any kind counts, whether or not it creates a mission.
- Scenario 2, friction without a monitor (about 30%): otherwise, a lethal incident in or near the territory is reported by two independent outlets or the UN by February 28, 2027. This is the same two-source test as F3.
- Scenario 1, mission without a referee (about 55%): otherwise.
MINURSO analysis: the four forecasts
- F1 (about 90%): no new Council resolution creating or authorising a Western Sahara mission by January 31, 2027. A mission resolution is a resolution that establishes or authorises a UN mission.
- F2 (about 90%): no General Assembly decision removing Western Sahara from its agenda or from the non-self-governing list by December 31, 2026.
- F3 (about 30% published; current estimate about 33%, see below): at least one lethal incident in or near the territory, reported by two independent outlets or by the UN, by February 28, 2027. We have not counted past incidents that met this test, so the base rate is missing and 30% is a judgment.
- F4 (about 45%): an Algeria-Russia trans-Saharan pipeline contract announced as signed by March 31, 2027. It counts only if Algeria’s state or Sonatrach and a Russian company or the Russian state announce a signed, binding agreement, in an official statement or through two major news agencies, covering construction or supply work on the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (Nigeria-Niger-Algeria). A memorandum, a letter of intent, talks, or a report that a contract is being finalised does not count. This clarification was added on November 4; the probability did not change.
How the numbers fit together
- F1 and scenario 3. A mission resolution is a subset of “any new text”, and the two windows differ: F1 runs to January 31 and scenario 3 to February 28. F1 leaves 10% for a mission resolution by January 31. A mission resolution adopted by then would also be a new text by February 28, so scenario 3 must be at least 10%. It is a lower bound, not an equality: scenario 3 also holds through a text that creates no mission, or a resolution adopted in February. At 15% it clears the bound.
- Scenario 2 and F3. Scenario 2 requires an incident that meets F3’s test, so F3 must be at least as likely as scenario 2. The published pair (30% and 30%) satisfies that only just: it implies a 0% chance of a qualifying incident in a world where the Council also adopts a new text (scenario 3). We did not state or weigh that implication when we set the numbers. It is an inconsistency in the original pair, not an assumption we held. Amendment, November 4, 2026: both original numbers stay on record and are scored as published. Separately, our current estimate for F3 is about 33% (scenario 2’s 30% plus about 3 points, roughly a one-in-five chance of a qualifying incident within scenario 3’s 15%; a judgment with no base rate). The 33% is reported next to the published 30% and does not replace it in scoring.
- No published probability has been changed. All seven numbers (three scenarios and four forecasts) are scored as published, and the scenarios are scored independently of F1 to F4.
Amendments so far
- November 4, 2026: definitions and a February 28, 2027 horizon added to the three scenarios; definition added for F4; “new text” and “mission resolution” distinguished; relationship between scenario 2 and F3 stated, with a separate current F3 estimate of about 33% recorded alongside the published 30%.
Corrections to any article follow our corrections policy.